Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Department of War maintains a statutory list of Chinese military companies operating within US jurisdiction, updated periodically under Section 1260H of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Polymarket currently prices the probability of at least one specified company's removal by June 2027 at 42%, suggesting traders view delisting as moderately unlikely but plausible within the 18-month window. The conditional token structure on Polygon means YES holders profit if the Department of War formally removes the company from its published list; NO holders profit if the company remains listed through settlement.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The list itself is relatively recent, first published in 2020 with subsequent expansions. Removals have been rare; companies typically remain listed once designated unless they cease US operations entirely or legal challenges succeed. The Trump administration's 2024 expansion of the list signals continued enforcement momentum, though geopolitical shifts or diplomatic negotiations could theoretically trigger delisting. The Biden administration's approach emphasised maintaining and broadening designations rather than removing entities.

Traders should monitor Department of Defense announcements and quarterly list updates, typically released without fixed schedule. Congressional activity around the NDAA process—particularly any amendments to Section 1260H—could alter removal criteria or procedures. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg on US-China trade negotiations may signal broader policy shifts affecting military company designations. The specified company's operational status in the US, any legal challenges it pursues, and bilateral diplomatic developments between Washington and Beijing represent the primary catalysts affecting resolution by June 2027.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.