Bitcoin price on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** on a Bitcoin print at the settlement timestamp, which on the platform means USDC is locked into conditional tokens on Polygon and only the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 ET will decide the outcome. With the contract trading at zero, the market is saying the current bracket set is viewed as out of reach, even though spot quotes across major venues are still clustering in the low-to-mid $60,000s. [2][6][12]

That reading matters because Bitcoin has been spending much of 2026 in a broad range rather than in a clean trend, with recent historical prints around $60,000–$63,000 and earlier 2026 lows near $60,074 before recovering. Comparable prediction-market listings for the same date on other venues have also concentrated liquidity in the $60,000–$66,000 area, which suggests traders have been treating this as a range-bound expiry rather than a directional breakout bet. [9][16][3]

For a Polymarket user, the live catalysts are mainly the Binance reference price itself, not a separate macro event: any sharp move in BTC spot, a liquidity sweep around the noon ET candle, or a venue-specific gap in Binance’s 1-minute close can flip which bracket resolves. The practical watchlist is the BTC/USDT chart on Binance, broader crypto sentiment, and any overnight volatility around U.S. market hours, because the market resolves strictly off that single candle close rather than an average price. [2][3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.