Bitcoin price on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 10 August 2026 will determine this contract's resolution, with Binance's 1-minute candle close serving as the authoritative data point. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that Bitcoin will not trade within the specified range at that precise moment—a reflection of how narrow intraday price brackets become when settlement hinges on a single minute's data rather than daily closes. On Polymarket, this contract trades as USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon, meaning traders are pricing the likelihood of a specific price band occurring at an exact timestamp roughly two years forward.

Historical precedent suggests that single-minute price brackets at defined times rarely attract significant probability mass, particularly for volatile assets like Bitcoin. When markets resolve on intraday candle data rather than daily closes, the precision required to land within a bracket creates a mathematical disadvantage for YES positions. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading cycle and the absence of a formal market close mean any noon ET snapshot captures a moment in continuous trading, where liquidity and order flow vary substantially. Comparable Polymarket contracts on intraday Bitcoin prices have typically settled NO unless the bracket was exceptionally wide or the timeframe fell during high-volume trading windows.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Bitcoin's volatility regime heading into August 2026, as elevated price swings would widen the range of plausible noon ET values. Regulatory announcements, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and macroeconomic data releases scheduled near the settlement date could influence Bitcoin's directional bias, though predicting a specific price at a specific minute remains fundamentally difficult. The contract's current pricing reflects the inherent challenge of pinpointing intraday price action across a two-year horizon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.