Bitcoin price on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price at noon ET on 21 August 2026 will be determined by the closing price of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at that specific moment. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for "Yes," suggesting traders are pricing in either extreme uncertainty about the settlement mechanics or a technical issue with how the market was constructed. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing positions; the 0% reading reflects either no meaningful liquidity or a fundamental problem with the market's framing that has deterred participation.

Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets reveal that pinpoint-in-time settlements—particularly those tied to specific exchange candles rather than daily closes—attract minimal volume because execution risk overwhelms directional conviction. A single flash crash, exchange maintenance window, or data feed interruption can swing outcomes dramatically. The 2024 Bitcoin halving and subsequent rally demonstrated how macro catalysts drive price action months in advance, yet markets settling on exact timestamps struggle to price such events because the timing of intraday volatility remains largely random relative to fundamental developments.

Traders monitoring this contract should track whether major macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve communications, or geopolitical events are scheduled near August 2026, as these could create directional bias weeks beforehand. Binance's operational status and any planned maintenance windows during the settlement period would be critical to verify. The absence of trading activity at 0% suggests the market may lack sufficient clarity on settlement procedures or sufficient trader interest to establish a functioning price discovery mechanism.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.