Bitcoin price on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which on a hands-on trader view means the market is effectively saying there is no live bid for Bitcoin finishing in the specified Binance 1-minute 12:00 ET candle range on the settlement date. Because the outcome is tied to Binance’s BTC/USDT 1-minute **Close** at noon ET and settles through Polymarket’s USDC-based conditional token structure on Polygon, the practical question is not Bitcoin’s broader direction but whether the exact timestamped close lands inside the relevant bracket. Fortune reported Bitcoin around **$64,137** at 5:45 a.m. ET on 5 August, while other market trackers put it in the mid-$64,000s, so the spot market was not obviously far away from the kind of levels that often determine these interval-style contracts.[1][4]

For comparable framing, recent prediction-market pricing around Bitcoin has not been treating intraday moves as one-way bets: Polyscore’s August 5 event snapshot clustered most probability in the **$62,000–$66,000** bands rather than at extremes, while a related Polymarket hourly market on the same date was already fully priced to one side.[5][12] That matters because a noon ET Binance candle can diverge from the wider day’s narrative; a sharp move in the final minutes before 12:00 ET, or a brief wick during thin liquidity, can decide the close even if the broader trend looks stable. Traders therefore tend to focus on the exact reference venue and timestamp rather than on headline spot levels alone.

The main catalysts are the usual ones that can shift BTC within a single session: macro data, US equity risk sentiment, ETF flow headlines, and any Binance-specific volatility around execution or liquidity. A trader also needs to watch how BTC trades into the New York morning, because the market resolves from a single minute candle rather than a daily average, making late-session positioning more important than the overnight path. Current prices around the mid-$64,000s leave the contract highly sensitive to only modest intraday swings, so even a routine move of a few hundred dollars can alter where the 12:00 ET close lands.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.