Bitcoin price on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s noon ET close on 20 July 2026 settled at $64,135.60 on Binance, placing it squarely within the 62,000–64,000 bracket that Polymarket currently prices at 0% YES for any higher range [3][4]. Historically, similar mid-year 2026 candles have rarely breached the next bracket unless triggered by macro liquidity shifts; in Q2 2026, BTC hovered between $60,000 and $66,000 with no sustained close above $64,000, reinforcing the crowd’s zero-probability stance [1][7].

Traders should monitor the Federal Reserve’s July meeting outcome and any upcoming US crypto regulatory announcements, as these have consistently driven intraday volatility in BTC/USDT pairs [5]. The Binance 1-minute candle resolution mechanism means even brief spikes at 12:00 ET could alter the outcome, but recent price action shows tight consolidation around $64,000, limiting upside momentum without a catalyst [4]. On-chain, conditional tokens for this market are minted on Polygon and settle in USDC, ensuring fast, low-cost execution for position adjustments before the 2026-07-20T16:00:00Z deadline [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.