July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The one-month seasonally adjusted change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 August 2026. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting trader consensus that the monthly figure will fall outside whatever threshold defines a YES resolution. The conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean traders holding YES tokens receive full USDC payout only if the published monthly percentage change meets the resolution criteria; otherwise, YES tokens expire worthless and NO tokens settle at par.

Historical monthly CPI-U changes provide essential calibration. Between 2020 and 2024, monthly seasonally adjusted readings ranged from −0.7% to +0.9%, with most months clustering between −0.1% and +0.4%. The Federal Reserve's inflation trajectory through early 2026 will substantially shape expectations for July's figure. If the Fed has maintained rates above neutral through spring 2026 or tightened further, traders would anticipate subdued monthly gains. Conversely, if rate cuts have begun or the economy has accelerated, monthly inflation could tick higher.

The BLS release on 12 August will include June's final CPI reading, which traders will have observed weeks earlier, providing directional context. Energy prices, wage growth data from July payrolls (released 1 August), and any supply-side shocks in the preceding weeks will drive last-minute repricing. The 0% implied probability suggests traders expect the threshold to be set at a level—whether 0.3%, 0.5%, or another figure—that July's actual reading is unlikely to exceed given current macroeconomic momentum.

Methodology

This page reviews July Inflation US - Monthly across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.