Bitcoin above … on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s noon ET close on 13 July 2026 is the sole trigger for this contract, with Binance’s 1-minute BTC/USDT candle determining settlement. On Polymarket today, the “above ___” binary trades at 100% YES, implying the crowd sees no chance of a lower close. The underlying spot price sits near $63,862 on Binance, with the 24-hour range between $63,640 and $64,504, while the market’s leading price-range outcome for the same date is $64,000–$66,000 at 50% probability, followed by $62,000–$64,000 at 37% [1][7].

Historically, similar noon-ET binaries on Polymarket have resolved cleanly when the threshold sits just below the prevailing spot level, as seen in the 11 July window that resolved “Up” after a higher noon close [3]. When the strike is set beneath the current trading band, conditional-token pools on Polygon typically compress to near-100% YES, reflecting low tail-risk in the 1-minute close. The 50% probability for the $64k–$66k band suggests traders expect a modest upside drift into the settlement candle, consistent with Binance’s own short-term projection of a 5% rise to roughly $64,048 by tomorrow [5].

Traders should watch the USDC liquidity depth on Polygon and any scheduled Binance maintenance or API updates that could skew the 1-minute close, as resolution depends strictly on the official “Close” field at 12:00 ET [1][2]. No major macro announcements are scheduled for 13 July that would directly alter intraday volatility, but intraday order-flow shifts around the noon mark remain the key dependency. The contract’s on-chain mechanics—USDC settlement, conditional tokens, and Polygon execution—mean price discovery is driven entirely by market participants betting on that single candle, not by broader exchange averages [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.