Bitcoin price on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying there is no paid conviction in the specified Binance 12:00 ET BTC/USDT minute close landing in the YES range. Because settlement is tied to Binance’s 1-minute candle close, traders are not simply betting on where Bitcoin “is” at midday, but on the exact timestamped print used by the resolution source, with the position represented on Polymarket via USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon.

That near-zero price sits against a Bitcoin tape that has been relatively tight rather than explosive. Public market data around 8 August show BTC trading in the mid-$64,000s, with recent closes clustered close to that level: StatMuse puts the 8 August trade-day close at $64,929.01, while other trackers show spot around $64,573 to $64,846 and recent daily closes in the low-to-mid $64,000s.[2][3][7][11] That matters for a range-based market because the exact Binance candle at noon ET can land differently from broader spot averages, especially if liquidity thins or the move is driven by a short-lived wick rather than a sustained trend.[2][3]

Traders should watch the usual intraday catalysts that can move BTC into or out of a bracket in the final hour before the 12:00 ET candle, including US macro headlines, ETF-flow chatter, and any sudden change in risk sentiment across crypto venues. Recent commentary has described Bitcoin as range-bound around $65,000, which reinforces how a small shift in momentum could matter more here than a large directional thesis.[14] For a Polymarket user, the practical issue is simple: the contract resolves from Binance’s exact 1-minute close, so what happens on that venue at noon ET — not a broader daily average — is what counts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.