Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance’s curated public sale on MetaDAO has already secured $2.315m in soft institutional commits, pushing the total commitment threshold well within reach as the four-day USDC window opens on 13 July [1][6]. With the crowd-implied probability at 99% YES, the market treats the raise’s minimum target as virtually certain to be hit before the 31 August 2026 settlement deadline, regardless of later refunds [1][7].

Historically, MetaDAO’s futarchy model has driven a 4× funding surge since April 2025, with $96m raised across projects and minimal rug risk due to on-chain USDC locking and market-governed treasury controls [2][4]. Comparable curated raises on the platform, such as UMBRA and META, exceeded targets early, reinforcing the pattern that institutional soft commits reliably convert into final commitments once the public window begins [2].

Traders should monitor the live “committed” figure on the official sale page, which resolves the market instantly upon hitting the threshold [1]. Key catalysts include Credible’s integration announcements for global pay-ins and pay-outs across 40+ markets, plus any updates on its $9m valuation cap and T+0 settlement rails [1][10]. The raise’s discretionary cap and fill-boost mechanics further incentivise early USDC deposits, reducing the chance of a shortfall [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.