What price will Bitcoin hit August 10-16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action during the week of 10–16 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract. The market currently prices this outcome at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific price range or minimal trading activity. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on Polygon, meaning settlement hinges on verified price data at the specified time window—typically closing prices from major spot exchanges or an oracle feed specified in the contract terms.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's weekly price swings have ranged from 3–8% under normal volatility conditions, though geopolitical shocks or major monetary policy announcements can drive sharper moves. The 0% probability suggests traders have either ruled out the target price entirely or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful bid-ask spread. Comparable weekly price targets in 2024–2025 attracted modest participation unless they aligned with known event risk; absence of crowd conviction here warrants scrutiny of whether the strike price sits far outside realistic weekly trading ranges.

Catalysts to monitor include Federal Reserve communications, any scheduled Bitcoin spot ETF rebalancing announcements, or macroeconomic data releases in early August 2026. Regulatory developments—particularly from the SEC or international bodies—can shift volatility expectations. Traders should cross-reference Bitcoin's implied volatility from options markets and monitor on-chain transaction volume in the days preceding the settlement window, as these often signal directional conviction ahead of key price levels.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.