What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading around the low-to-mid **$65,000**s on public forecast models, while Polymarket’s own orderbook for this event is heavily concentrated in the **64,000–66,000** band at **88%**, with **66,000–68,000** next at **9%**; that leaves the current **0% YES** reading as a sign that the contract is effectively priced as a near-certain miss on the specific strike rather than a view on Bitcoin’s broader direction.[7][2][5] On Polymarket, traders are not buying bitcoin itself: they are trading **USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon**, so the price reflects the market’s expectation of where BTC will land at the settlement check, not the coin’s path during the day.[7]

For historical framing, short-horizon BTC forecasts published on 10 August 2026 cluster close to the spot area, with CoinCodex putting BTC at **$65,614** for 10 August and Changelly at **$65,219.96**, both consistent with the same mid-$65,000 range that Polymarket is already discounting.[2][3] Comparable price-prediction pages from crypto sites and exchange venues also place the near-term band around **$64,000–$68,000**, which helps explain why a contract tied to a specific hit level can remain lopsided even when broader forecasts look stable.[10][18][4]

A trader should watch the usual liquidity drivers: macro data, Federal Reserve expectations, ETF flow headlines, and any sudden exchange or regulatory developments, because those can move BTC enough to reach or miss a narrow band before the settlement window closes. One dated catalyst noted in recent coverage is the U.S. inflation print due on **12 August**, which market commentators have linked to whether traders will keep pricing out a September rate move; in practice, that matters less for long-term direction than for whether BTC can hold a level through the event window.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.