What price will Bitcoin hit on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 13 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing the outcome at zero probability via USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon. The settlement window closes on 14 August at 04:00 UTC, giving a narrow window for price discovery across spot markets globally. At present, the crowd has assigned negligible odds to this specific outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular price range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful positions.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin has experienced sharp single-day moves of 5–15% during periods of macroeconomic volatility or major regulatory announcements, though moves exceeding 20% in a calendar day remain rare outside crisis events. The 2021 bull market saw several instances where Bitcoin crossed multiple round-number thresholds within weeks, yet pinpointing exact daily closes has proven difficult for prediction markets lacking real-time settlement infrastructure. Comparable Polymarket contracts on Bitcoin price targets have typically seen probability clusters around support and resistance levels derived from technical analysis, rather than uniform distribution across price bands.

Traders monitoring this contract should track scheduled Federal Reserve communications, major cryptocurrency exchange announcements, and macroeconomic data releases in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and Treasury yields remains a material dependency; any significant shift in rate expectations could trigger the volatility necessary to move prices materially. On-chain metrics including exchange inflows and large transaction activity may signal positioning changes among institutional holders ahead of the settlement date.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.