What price will Ethereum hit on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum is priced by Polymarket around the market’s threshold levels, while the cash market has been trading close to $1,915–$1,920 on 9 August 2026, depending on the venue and timestamp.[1][3][5] On the contract itself, Robinhood’s comparable event market shows near-certain pricing for lower bands such as $1,820 or above and $1,900 or above, which is consistent with a market that sees ETH hovering just above the headline level rather than making a large intraday move.[2]

For context, ETH has spent the recent session in a narrow range rather than a breakout phase: Twelve Data’s Binance history shows 9 August closing around $1.92k with only a 0.08% daily move, and YCharts puts the daily level near $1,907.44 as of 6 August, after a year-on-year decline from $3,612.44.[4][10] That matters for a Polymarket user because these contracts are settled on the final on-chain price read at the specified time, with USDC margin and conditional tokens on Polygon, so the last print near the deadline matters more than the day’s peak or intraday sentiment.

The main catalysts to watch are any late-session macro or crypto-specific headlines that can move spot exchange pricing into the settlement window, especially ETF-flow commentary, staking-policy developments, or exchange-specific volatility.[3] Recent market coverage also notes that ETH has been supported by spot ETF inflows and institutional yield strategies, so traders will want to track whether those flows persist into the closing hours or fade before settlement.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.