What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price movement on 11 August 2026 will be determined by spot trading across major exchanges—Coinbase, Kraken, Binance and others—with settlement tied to the closing price on that specific date. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 0% implied probability, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular price threshold or minimal liquidity and trader interest in this particular outcome window. The market's settlement occurs the following day (12 August 04:00 UTC), giving traders a narrow window to position before final resolution against USDC collateral on Polygon.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show daily swings of 3–8% during periods of moderate volatility, though moves exceeding 10% in a single day occur roughly 5–10 times annually depending on macro conditions and event timing. The current zero probability suggests either the threshold is set far outside realistic trading ranges for that date, or the market has simply attracted no meaningful order flow. Comparable single-day price contracts on Polymarket typically see activity cluster around major announcements—Federal Reserve decisions, significant regulatory news, or exchange-listed spot ETF developments—rather than arbitrary calendar dates absent a scheduled catalyst.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for mid-August macroeconomic releases, central bank communications, or any announced Bitcoin-related regulatory shifts in major jurisdictions. The 2026 timeframe extends beyond most near-term scheduled events, meaning unexpected geopolitical developments or financial market dislocations would be the primary drivers of outsized Bitcoin movement on that specific date. Conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean settlement will reflect the price feed selected at market creation, typically a volume-weighted average from major spot venues.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.