Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-6.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+6.5) | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-9.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+9.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 25% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-1.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-9.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CHAMA (-1.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-9.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-12.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
BORRACHEIROS and MEIA NOITE are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match on 10 August at 1:00PM ET as part of the BetBoom Storm Group Stage. The conditional tokens on Polymarket currently price this fixture at 100% YES, reflecting either near-certainty in market expectations or insufficient liquidity to move the contract away from its extremes. This pricing suggests traders view match completion as virtually assured, though the settlement rules permit resolution to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without conclusion, or ends in a tie.
Brazilian Counter-Strike fixtures at this tier have historically demonstrated high completion rates, with group-stage matches in regional tournaments rarely cancelled outright. However, technical issues, server problems, or scheduling conflicts have occasionally forced postponements in online-format events. The BetBoom Storm format operates on a compressed schedule, which increases pressure for timely resolution but also creates dependency on stable broadcast infrastructure. Traders should monitor BetBoom's official channels and the participating organisations' social media for any announcements regarding reschedules or format changes in the hours preceding the match.
The 7-day grace period built into the settlement terms provides meaningful protection against short-term delays, though it also creates a window where market uncertainty could resurface if postponement is announced. Given the current 100% pricing, any credible threat to match completion would likely trigger significant contract movement on Polygon, as traders reassess the probability of reaching the 50-50 resolution threshold.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - B… on PolyGram
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