Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CSH.P (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-6.5) vs Benched gods (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-6.5) vs Benched gods (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing **CYBERSHOKE Prospects to win** this BO3 at **100% YES**, which leaves almost no room for a Benched gods upset unless the contract is still just an artefact of stale liquidity rather than active conviction. On Polymarket, the position settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters for holders is whether the match is played to a valid winner before the settlement deadline.
That near-certain price is easiest to read against the surrounding CCT Europe Series #5 results. CYBERSHOKE Prospects already posted a **2-0** and a **2-1** result in the same event cycle, while the match page for this pairing shows the scoreline as **1:1**, suggesting the teams have already met in some form of recorded play within the tournament ecosystem. In practice, when a market is pinned at 100%, traders usually assume either a very lopsided competitive edge or that the market is reflecting event flow rather than fresh uncertainty.
The key catalysts are procedural rather than tactical: confirmation that the BO3 is actually completed, whether any map forfeits or schedule changes appear, and whether the result is logged before the **7-day** no-winner fallback window. Because the market rules resolve to **50-50** if the match is cancelled, tied, or drifts past that deadline without a winner, the main risk is not the team strength gap but a disruption in the match administration or reporting chain.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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