Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: IC.A (-1.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Inner Circle Academy face ex-Sashi Academy in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #7, Group D stage. The fixture is scheduled for 14 August at 10:00 AM ET, with settlement occurring at 20:15 UTC the same day. On Polymarket, conditional tokens representing each outcome trade at prices reflecting a 100% implied probability for Inner Circle Academy, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in their victory or minimal liquidity depth in this particular contract pair on Polygon.
The CCT Europe Closed Qualifier format serves as a secondary pathway for teams seeking circuit points and qualification opportunities within Counter-Strike's fragmented competitive ecosystem. Inner Circle Academy, as the implied favourite, likely carries recent form advantages or roster stability relative to ex-Sashi Academy, though academy-level squads frequently experience roster churn and inconsistent performance across tournaments. Historical precedent in academy-tier matches shows that heavily skewed probabilities often reflect information asymmetries rather than genuine competitive gaps—teams fielding substitute players or experiencing last-minute changes can produce unexpected results despite pre-match pricing.
Traders should monitor official CCT announcements and team social media channels for roster confirmations, player availability, or schedule amendments through to the settlement window close. Any delay extending beyond seven days from the scheduled date without a determined winner triggers market resolution to "No". Technical dependencies include Polygon network stability and timely match result reporting through official CCT channels, which occasionally experience delays in secondary qualifier documentation.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs ex-Sashi Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #7 Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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