Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: IC.A (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs Subtop De France (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs Subtop De France (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs Subtop De France (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs Subtop De France (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs Subtop De France (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-12.5) vs Subtop De France (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
Market context
Inner Circle Academy have already secured a 2–0 victory over Subtop De France in their CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #5 Group B match, which concluded earlier today on 15 July. The result is now official on the tournament tracker, meaning the underlying event has resolved definitively before the market’s settlement window closes on 15 July at 23:55 UTC [1].
On Polymarket, this contract trades at 100% YES for Inner Circle Academy, reflecting the on-chain certainty that the outcome is known. Conditional tokens for “Inner Circle Academy” are effectively risk-free in USDC terms on Polygon, as the match result is already declared and no further gameplay can alter it. Historical precedents in CS2 prediction markets show that once a match result is confirmed by the organiser, prices converge instantly to 100% or 0%, with no meaningful volatility until settlement [2][4].
Traders should monitor only the official tournament page for any post-match administrative changes, such as disqualifications or forfeit rulings that could override the on-field result. While no such action is currently indicated, Kalshi’s CS2 market rules note that if a match is later awarded by forfeit or disqualification, the declared result by the organiser determines settlement [2]. For this contract, the 2–0 scoreline stands as the final result, so no further catalysts are expected to shift the probability.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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