Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Voca (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Voca (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Voca (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Voca (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Voca (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Voca (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Voca (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Voca (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-12.5) vs Voca (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Voca (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Voca (-9.5) vs NRG (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Voca (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Voca (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing **NRG at 100%** in this BO3, so the contract is effectively trading as if Voca has no remaining path to victory before settlement. On Polymarket, that means holders of the “NRG” side are assuming the match completes with an NRG win, while the market also carries the usual on-chain rules on USDC deposits, Polygon settlement, and conditional token resolution if the match is cancelled, tied, or left without a result beyond the deadline.
That pricing is consistent with the recent head-to-head record and the broader pre-match expectation. In February 2026, NRG beat Voca 2-1 at Ace North American Masters Spring 2026, and one match database lists NRG as 4-0 in previous meetings overall.[10] Current tournament coverage also shows NRG as the clearer favourite in this qualifier, with recent roster continuity centred on players such as nitr0, hallzerk, Grim and Sonic, while Voca is described as a less established regional side.[2][10]
For traders, the key catalysts are simple: whether the upper-bracket final is confirmed to start as scheduled, whether any map veto or server issues delay play, and whether tournament admin updates the bracket or pushes the fixture past the settlement window. The qualifier is an online, double-elimination event running through early August, and the market description makes the outcome dependent on the match actually being completed; if the fixture is abandoned, delayed too long, or ends without a decisive winner, resolution can fall back to 50-50 rather than either team.[7][8][9]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: NRG vs Voca (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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