Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs paiN Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-1.5) vs paiN Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs paiN Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs paiN Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs paiN Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this paiN Academy vs MEIA NOITE BO3 priced at **100% YES**, which means the contract is effectively trading at the top of the range and already assumes paiN Academy will win the series. On Polymarket, the position settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters for resolution is the official match outcome or the market’s fallback rules if the series is not completed as scheduled. The listed match time was 14:00 UTC on 6 August in the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, and the market’s settlement window runs to 6 August 2026 at 20:00 UTC. [1][3]
The current price should be read against a narrow set of comparables: academy-level Counter-Strike markets often move hard once a fixture is confirmed, because lineups, map pools and tournament progression can be thinly documented compared with tier-one events. PaiN Academy’s recent match history on tracking sites shows a mix of official results and academy-level BO3s, which is the kind of profile that can leave a market vulnerable to late information rather than broad public consensus. In practice, a 100% price usually reflects either very strong expectation of a win or the fact that the contract is so one-sided that little liquidity remains for dissenting views. [4][11][17]
The key catalysts are simple: whether the match actually starts on time, whether the tournament updates the bracket or schedule, and whether either team field a different roster than expected. Live score services were still listing the fixture for 6 August at 14:00 UTC, while the prediction listing also showed trading activity, suggesting the market remained active around the scheduled window rather than being abandoned. If the game is delayed, cancelled, or left unfinished beyond the contract’s seven-day limit without an official winner, the market can resolve to 50-50 instead of a side. [1][3]
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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