Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs Just Players (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-9.5) vs Just Players (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-12.5) vs Just Players (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this contract at **100% YES** on the Sashi Esport side, which means the market is treating a Sashi win in this Bo3 as fully expected rather than merely favoured. On Polymarket, the contract settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters is the official match outcome: Sashi win pays YES, Just Players win pays NO, and a non-result can push the market to 50-50 under the stated rules.
That near-certain read sits alongside the broader tournament picture. CCT Europe Series #5 is a $25,000 Counter-Strike event running from 21 July to 2 August, with playoffs in a single-elimination Bo3 bracket, and this quarter-final is one of the matches that should resolve within the posted playoff window.[1] Comparable market signals on public esports platforms have also leaned towards Sashi, with Strafe showing roughly a 75% tilt for Sashi and GG-U modelling a close but still favourable position for the team in a prior snapshot, while Liquipedia lists the playoff stage as ongoing rather than completed.[1][6][8]
For traders, the main catalysts are operational rather than narrative: the match start time, any schedule shifts, and whether the series is actually played to completion before the settlement window closes. Public listings have not been perfectly aligned on timing, with some services showing 14:00 UTC and others reflecting later or live-status updates, so confirmation from the event schedule or broadcast is the key dependency.[2][3][7][8] If the fixture is delayed, replayed, or interrupted beyond the market’s seven-day rule, the on-chain contract can move away from a straight team-result outcome even if one side was already priced at 100% beforehand.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Just Players (BO3) -… on PolyGram
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