Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: SAW (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SAW (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SAW (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SAW (-9.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SAW (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SAW (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-3.5) vs SAW (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs SAW (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
SAW vs Esport Academy Copenhagen is trading at **100% YES** on Polymarket, so the contract is priced as a near-certain SAW win in the conditional-tokens market settled in USDC on Polygon. In practice, that means buyers are paying almost full face value for exposure to the match result, with very little room left for an upset, delay, or administrative edge case before the settlement window closes.
That pricing is consistent with how the market has already been treated by esports data and prediction sites: several listings show the series as completed with SAW winning 2-0 in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 3, and crowd sentiment was heavily skewed towards SAW before settlement.[1][2][15] For Polymarket users, the key point is that this is no longer a live-form assessment of team strength; it is mainly a check on whether the on-chain contract matches the official match outcome, and whether any late tournament ruling could trigger the market’s 50-50 fallback.
The main catalysts to watch are official bracket updates, organiser scheduling changes, and any dispute over whether the BO3 was actually played to completion within the qualifier rules. Match-listing services placed the start time around 14:40 UTC, but the event page on Polymarket is only resolved by the final, recognised result, not by streaming status or a postponed start.[2][8] If a delayed finish, forfeit, or cancellation were announced after play began, the market’s settlement mechanics would matter more than the scoreboard narrative, because the outcome depends on the final adjudicated result rather than the mere existence of a fixture.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: SAW vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 3 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Counter-Strike: SAW vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO… on PolyGram
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