Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-6.5) vs FURIA (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 53% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-6.5) vs DENDELE CS (+6.5) | 51% |
| Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 47% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 44% |
| Match Winner | 26% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-6.5) vs DENDELE CS (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-9.5) vs DENDELE CS (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket's conditional token pricing reflects 87% confidence that Sharks will defeat FURIA in this Counter-Strike best-of-three matchup during the BLAST Bounty Qualifier's Round of 32 stage. The match is scheduled for 24 July at 1:30PM ET, with settlement contingent on completion by 31 July; any cancellation, tie, or extended delay triggers a 50-50 resolution. On-chain liquidity denominated in USDC across Polygon indicates traders are pricing a substantial skill gap favouring the Brazilian side, though the specific team compositions and recent form remain critical variables for position-holders.
FURIA's historical performance in BLAST events and broader tier-one competition provides the foundation for this probability assessment. The organisation has consistently fielded rosters capable of navigating early-stage qualifiers, whilst Sharks—despite regional competitiveness—typically face steeper odds against established squads in international formats. Comparable Round of 32 matchups in similar qualifier structures have seen favourites at 80–90% implied probability convert at rates between 75–85%, suggesting the current pricing sits within historical norms rather than representing an outlier.
Traders should monitor official BLAST announcements regarding final roster confirmations and any scheduling adjustments, particularly given the compressed settlement window. Equipment issues, visa complications, or last-minute roster changes could materialise in the 48 hours preceding the fixture. Recent FURIA performances in online qualifiers and any roster rotations from either team warrant tracking through official esports news channels, as these directly influence the conditional token's underlying value.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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