Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs The Huns Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs The Huns Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
Market context
TYLOO defeated The Huns Esports 2-0 in their most recent Counter-Strike encounter at the CS Asia Championships 2026, securing a 13-10 win on Mirage and 13-11 on Nuke before advancing to the Upper Bracket Final [1]. This head-to-head dominance frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability on Polymarket, where USDC holders on Polygon are pricing in a near-certain TYLOO victory via conditional tokens that resolve only if The Huns win the BO3 semifinal [6]. Historical data from EGamersWorld shows no prior BO3 wins for The Huns against TYLOO, reinforcing the market’s bearish stance on the Mongolian side [2].
Traders should monitor the official BLAST Open Asian Qualifier Playoffs schedule for any delays beyond the seven-day settlement window, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution if the match remains uncompleted [1]. Key catalysts include TYLOO’s roster stability and The Huns’ lower-bracket recovery path, as online settings in Asia can introduce latency dependencies affecting map outcomes [4]. Recent coverage from Dust2.in confirms TYLOO’s 2-0 start in BLAST Rising Asia, suggesting sustained momentum into this semifinal clash [7].
The on-chain mechanics allow immediate position closure before the 2026-07-11 settlement deadline, with liquidity concentrated in the TYLOO share due to the verified 0-2 result from the closed qualifier [8]. No cancellation has been announced, so the market remains active pending the BO3 outcome, where a single map loss for The Huns would likely confirm the current pricing [9].
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Asian Qualifier Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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