Dota 2: Team Falcons vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Falcons face LGD Gaming in a best-of-three opening match at The International, Dota 2's premier annual championship. The fixture is scheduled for 12 August at 10:00 PM ET, with the Polymarket contract currently pricing Falcons' victory at 75 cents per share on USDC/Polygon, implying roughly three-to-one odds in their favour. Settlement occurs at 08:00 UTC on 13 August, allowing a seven-day grace period for delayed matches before the contract resolves to 50-50 if no winner emerges.

LGD Gaming enters as a two-time International champion (2017, 2018) with consistent top-four finishes at recent tournaments, though roster changes and regional competition shifts have tempered their dominance. Team Falcons, representing the Middle East and North Africa region, qualified through the regional qualifier and bring less established pedigree at this scale. Historical International data suggests established Chinese teams like LGD maintain statistical edges in group-stage matchups against emerging regional representatives, yet Falcons' qualification itself signals competitive capability that markets may be underweighting relative to the 75 per cent probability.

Traders should monitor official schedule confirmations from Valve and The International organisers for any postponements or format changes in the days preceding the match. Roster announcements, scrim results, or injury disclosures from either camp could shift the contract before play begins. The seven-day resolution window creates arbitrage risk if technical issues delay the match; conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean early traders bear execution risk if the match extends beyond the scheduled window without immediate completion.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.