Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming is priced at **100% YES** on Polymarket, which means the market is treating a qualifying “more markets” outcome as fully locked in before the settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC. On Polymarket, that price is backed by USDC on Polygon and resolved through conditional tokens, so the contract reflects the crowd’s view of the event outcome rather than a traditional bookmaker line. In practical terms, the current tape leaves little room for uncertainty unless the market’s event definition changes or the series metadata is updated late.
The comparison set is important because these teams have already produced a small but meaningful sample this summer. Vici Gaming beat Team Falcons 2-0 in the Esports World Cup on 17 July, after Falcons had earlier taken a 2-0 win in DreamLeague Season 29 on 15 May, while PGL Wallachia Season 7 went Vici’s way 2-1 in March[1][3][6]. That mixed head-to-head profile matters for reading any Dota market built around a best-of-two, because it shows the pairing has been competitive even when one side has been favoured elsewhere. Falcons’ strong recent group-stage run at EWC and Vici’s ability to convert an upset both point to form that can swing quickly across patches and drafts[1][11].
For a trader, the immediate catalysts are the published series start time, any last-minute roster or pause-related announcements, and whether the market’s “more markets” definition is tied to this exact fixture or to broader event completion mechanics. The key operational detail is that this is a scheduled best-of-two on 30 July, so settlement depends on the result being final and correctly matched to the market’s wording rather than on speculation about team strength alone[1]. In a tokenised market like this, late corrections tend to matter more than pre-match narrative, because the contract resolves on the recorded outcome, not on expectations.
Methodology
We track Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - More Markets on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →