Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Liquid face Vici Gaming in a best-of-three opening fixture at The International, Dota 2's premier annual championship. The match is scheduled for 13 August at 01:00 ET, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC the same day. Polymarket currently prices Team Liquid at 61% implied probability, reflecting their standing as the slight favourite despite Vici Gaming's strength in the Chinese competitive circuit. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES tokens benefit if Liquid secure the series, whilst NO token holders profit from a Vici victory; both settle against USDC at the resolution timestamp.

Historical precedent suggests The International group stage often produces tighter contests than pre-tournament rankings indicate. Team Liquid won The International 2017 and remain a consistent top-eight presence, though their recent form has been inconsistent across regional qualifiers. Vici Gaming, conversely, dominated the Chinese Dota Pro League in 2024 and reached multiple International finals previously. Direct head-to-head records between these rosters carry limited weight given roster changes, but Liquid's international experience at this event stage has historically favoured them in opening matches where preparation intensity varies.

Traders should monitor team announcements regarding final roster confirmations and any last-minute stand-in requirements through 12 August. Scheduling delays remain a material risk given The International's complex logistics; the 50-50 resolution clause activates if the match extends beyond seven days without completion. Recent patch notes and hero pool adjustments released before the event will shape draft strategy, potentially favouring whichever team's preparation better anticipated the meta shift.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.