Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this PuckChamp–Zero Tenacity Bo3 at **0% YES**, which means the contract is effectively marked as not expecting a valid PuckChamp win before the settlement window closes. Because the market settles on the named winner only if the series is played and completed, the practical question for holders is not just who is stronger, but whether the result arrives cleanly within the EPL Masters Group B schedule and rules. On Polygon, buyers use USDC to hold conditional tokens, so a late cancellation, tie, or unresolved interruption can matter as much as the map score itself.
The live context is unusual because match listings currently show the series underway, with Zero Tenacity already leading 1-0 after Game 2 began on 30 July at 09:00 UTC, while third-party match pages also place Zero Tenacity above PuckChamp in pre-match ratings and user votes. Zero Tenacity have been ranked higher on GosuGamers and were favoured 67% to 33% on Strafe before the series, while an earlier EPL Masters I meeting between the same teams ended 2-0 to Zero Tenacity, giving traders a direct comparable case for how this pairing has played recently.[2][3][5]
For traders watching the contract now, the key catalysts are simple: official bracket updates, whether Game 2 and any decider are completed, and whether the tournament operator records a standard winner rather than a no-contest outcome. Bo3 group-stage formats in EPL Masters typically reward a completed series with points, but a delay beyond seven days, a cancellation, or an unfinished match without a declared winner would push settlement to 50-50 under the market rules, so the operational schedule matters as much as the in-game draft.[9]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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