Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
Rune Eaters face Zero Tenacity in the lower bracket semifinal of the EPL Masters Playoffs, a best-of-three Dota 2 fixture originally scheduled for 11 August at 2:00 PM ET. The Polymarket contract currently reflects 100% implied probability for match completion, pricing USDC conditional tokens on Polygon at a ceiling that suggests near-certain settlement within the seven-day window. This pricing reflects the structural reliability of EPL tournament scheduling rather than predictive confidence in either team's victory.
Zero Tenacity has established itself as a consistent mid-tier European squad, whilst Rune Eaters operate within a comparable competitive tier. Historical lower bracket semifinals in regional Dota 2 tournaments rarely produce cancellations or delays beyond the settlement window, though technical issues or unforeseen scheduling conflicts have occasionally forced rescheduling within the permitted timeframe. The 100% probability assigned here reflects tournament infrastructure confidence rather than match outcome certainty—the contract settles on whether the match occurs and produces a winner, not on who prevails.
Traders monitoring this contract should track EPL Masters official announcements regarding venue changes, player availability, or scheduling adjustments. Recent regional tournaments have maintained fixture integrity despite logistical pressures, though visa complications or equipment failures have occasionally triggered same-day postponements. The settlement window extends to 12 August at 00:10 UTC, providing a 22-hour buffer beyond the scheduled start time. Any announcement of cancellation or postponement beyond seven days would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, fundamentally altering the contract's value trajectory.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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