Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Resilience will face OG in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 14 August 2026 at 01:00 ET. The Polymarket contract currently trades at 100% YES, meaning traders are pricing Team Resilience as certain to win. Settlement occurs via conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral held until resolution. The 50-50 tie resolution clause applies only if the match is cancelled outright or genuinely ends level; postponements trigger a 168-hour grace period from the original 01:00 ET start time.

OG remains one of Dota 2's most decorated organisations, having won The International twice (2018, 2019) and consistently qualifying for the event's main stages. Team Resilience's recent competitive record and roster stability relative to OG's current lineup will determine whether the 100% YES pricing reflects genuine certainty or mispricing. Historical group-stage matches at The International rarely see such extreme probability skew unless one team has withdrawn or a fixture has been formally cancelled; the current market state warrants scrutiny of official tournament brackets and team confirmations.

Traders should monitor The International's official schedule announcements and any roster changes announced before 14 August. Valve's esports team typically confirms group-stage matchups 48–72 hours in advance. Injury, visa delays, or last-minute roster swaps have occasionally forced postponements in prior International events. The settlement window closes at 12:10 UTC on 14 August, leaving minimal buffer after the scheduled 01:00 ET start; any delay beyond the 168-hour window would trigger the 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.