Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Team Spirit at 37% to win this best-of-three, which leaves TEAM VISION as the clear market favourite on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon. That sits against a fairly strong live backdrop for Vision: they beat Spirit 2-0 in the group stage on 15 August and were first through to the playoffs, while Spirit also came through a tighter route after a 2-1 elimination-stage win to secure their own bracket place.[1][9][12]

For traders, the main read-through is that the market is not simply reflecting seed position but the earlier head-to-head and the different paths into the upper bracket. Comparable TI playoff rematches often move sharply on map veto expectations, draft comfort and whether the prior sweep looked structural or just a one-off read on the patch; a 37% line implies Spirit are still being given a meaningful chance if the series becomes slower and more draft-dependent than the group-stage result.[1][10][12]

The practical catalysts are straightforward: confirm the match actually starts and is not rescheduled beyond the settlement window, watch for any bracket or timetable updates from the organiser, and track whether either team shows signs of fatigue or preparation gaps after the compressed playoff schedule. The listed start time is 21 August at 08:00 UTC, with the market originally tied to 4:00 AM ET and a resolution window that closes on 21 August at 14:00 UTC, so any delay, cancellation or unusual start-time change matters directly for settlement.[2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.