Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

TEAM VISION and Team Falcons are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 13 August 2026 at 05:00 ET. The market currently prices TEAM VISION's victory at 0% on Polymarket, reflecting either extreme confidence in Team Falcons or a liquidity void in the conditional token pair on Polygon. Settlement hinges on match completion by the 16:05 UTC deadline; any cancellation or tie triggers a 50-50 split of USDC collateral across both outcomes.

Historical precedent from International qualifiers and group stages shows that 0% pricing often emerges when one roster carries significantly higher recent tournament placement, prize pool earnings, or head-to-head records. Team Falcons' consistent appearances in upper-bracket finishes at major events typically command market respect, whilst TEAM VISION's regional standing or recent roster changes may explain the stark probability skew. However, group-stage formats introduce volatility—upsets occur when meta shifts favour specific draft styles or when individual player form diverges from seasonal averages.

Traders should monitor official The International schedule confirmations from Valve and PGL, as group-stage matches occasionally shift within the 168-hour window. Recent roster announcements or injury disclosures could shift the conditional token ratio meaningfully. The 05:00 ET slot places this match outside peak Western trading hours, potentially constraining liquidity depth and creating arbitrage opportunities if late-stage information surfaces. Settlement window closure at 16:05 UTC allows minimal grace period for match delays.

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.