Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Yellow Submarine and Execration are scheduled for a best-of-three in Games of the Future Group A, and Polymarket is pricing the USDC-settled, Polygon-based contract at **100% YES** for Yellow Submarine at the moment. That is an extreme market view for a BO3, where a single map swing can change the whole outcome, so the current price implies traders see the matchup as effectively decided before the first draft. Match listings place the series around 05:00 UTC on 31 July, with the market’s settlement window ending later the same day, which means any delay, cancellation, or incomplete series mechanics still matter for how the conditional tokens resolve.[1][4][15]

The main comparison is not with a clean favourite-versus-underdog spot, but with contracts that get pushed to the brink by event timing and bracket logistics. Games of the Future 2026 is running a Group A best-of-three format, and public previews describe Yellow Submarine versus Execration as an opener where neither side should be treated as a certainty on paper, even if the market has concentrated almost entirely on one outcome.[17][18] In practice, Polymarket users are not just trading the match result; they are trading the probability that the event is played, completed, and resolved cleanly within the settlement rules attached to the conditional token outcome.

For catalysts, the key watchpoints are the organiser’s live schedule, any broadcast start-time changes, and whether the series begins on time enough to avoid the seven-day delay clause. Match pages across esports trackers still show the fixture as upcoming on 31 July, but some listings differ on exact local start times, which is common around international events and can matter when a market has an early settlement window.[1][6][13] Traders should also watch for late roster or format notices, because a BO3 that is started but not completed, or a match that is not played at all, can shift resolution away from a straightforward winner-takes-all outcome under the contract terms.[15][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.