Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 89% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Match Winner | 32% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LVLUP (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Level UP (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this Dota 2 best-of-three at **0% YES** for Zero Tenacity on USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, which implies the contract is effectively treating Level UP as the only live side unless fresh information changes the order book. The real-world event is a Group B Play-In match in EPL Masters, and the market still resolves from the actual result rather than from pre-match sentiment alone.
A zero quote does not mean the outcome is impossible; it usually means the market is thin, mispriced, or anchored by stale assumptions. In comparable esports markets, traders often see these extremes before line-ups are confirmed, when a team is late to post a roster, or when the bracket and start time move around. The settlement mechanics matter here: if the series is not played, ends level, or slips more than seven days past the scheduled date without a winner, Polymarket resolves to 50-50 rather than a side.
For traders, the immediate catalysts are the official match status, any late schedule change, and whether EPL Masters publishes a started/completed series result on time. One available preview source for this fixture leans towards Zero Tenacity, but that is only a single pre-match view and does not change the market’s on-chain resolution rules.[1] The key watchpoint is whether the BO3 actually begins as listed or is postponed, because once play starts the conditional token settles strictly on the finished result.
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Level UP (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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