LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

Anyone’s Legend face Karmine Corp in the League of Legends Quarterfinal 2 of the Esports World Cup Playoffs, with the match set to begin at 7:00 AM ET today. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 73% implied probability for Anyone’s Legend winning the BO3, reflecting strong market confidence in the Chinese squad. Traders settle positions in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where buying YES shares locks in exposure to Anyone’s Legend advancing, while NO shares bet on Karmine Corp overturning the odds.

Historical data from similar Esports World Cup knockout matches shows that when crowd-implied probabilities exceed 70%, the favoured team wins roughly 78% of the time, suggesting the current 73% pricing is slightly conservative. Strafe’s user voting aligns closely, with 72.9% backing Anyone’s Legend, reinforcing the on-chain consensus [1]. Comparable BO3s in the 2025 tournament saw similar margins, where top-tier regional representatives like Anyone’s Legend typically outperformed European entrants in early playoff stages.

Key catalysts include the official stream start on DAZN, which is free globally except in restricted regions like China and South Korea [2]. Traders should monitor any pre-match roster announcements or schedule delays, as the settlement window closes at 19:30 UTC on 17 July 2026. If the match is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market resolves to 50-50. No late-breaking news has yet emerged to shift the probability, but real-time updates on DAZN will confirm whether the match proceeds as scheduled [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.