LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C

Platform comparison

Market context

Bilibili Gaming face Movistar KOI in the Upper bracket semifinal 1 of the Esports World Cup Group C, a single-game decider scheduled for 6:10AM ET today in Paris. The contract on Polymarket currently prices a Bilibili victory at 86% YES, reflecting a heavy consensus that the Chinese side will secure the win and advance.

Historical betting data for this matchup mirrors the on-chain pricing, with bookmakers offering Bilibili at roughly 1.13–1.15 odds against KOI’s 5.0–5.58, implying a similar 85–87% win probability [1][2]. In League of Legends upper-bracket BO1s at major tournaments, the higher-ranked team typically dominates when the gap in roster depth is significant, and Bilibili’s recent form against Western squads supports this statistical lean. The 86% figure is not an outlier but aligns with traditional market efficiency for mismatched BO1s in high-stakes group stages.

Traders should monitor the official EWC YouTube stream for any pre-match delays or roster changes, as the settlement window closes strictly at 16:40:00Z on 15 July [3]. The tournament’s $2 million prize pool and live format in Paris mean no cancellations are expected unless a technical failure occurs, which would trigger the 50-50 fallback clause. With USDC liquidity on Polygon and conditional tokens already active, the primary catalyst is the match start time; any delay beyond seven days without a winner would reset the probability to parity, though current schedules suggest immediate resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.