LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Cloud9 at **100% YES**, which means the contract is effectively aligned with a near-certain Cloud9 win and little to no Disguised upside left on the board. For a Polymarket user, that price sits on the USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token structure rather than the match itself: buyers of YES are paying almost the full notional to receive \(1\) USDC only if Cloud9 are the official winner, while any non-standard outcome would follow the market rules for cancellation, tie, or prolonged delay.

The historical read also points in the same direction. Cloud9 have dominated this pairing in recent meetings, including a 2-0 win over Disguised in LCS Spring 2026, and public match previews have consistently treated the matchup as heavily one-sided, with Cloud9 favoured by wide margins and Disguised given only a slim chance of taking a map, let alone a series.[9][10][16] Bo3 market data from comparable listings also shows Cloud9 priced as the clear series favourite, with 2-0 outcomes and under 2.5 maps sitting as the most plausible scorelines.[1][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: confirm the series actually starts, watch for any schedule change from LCS organisers, and track whether the match is completed within the settlement window. Live listings today show the series in progress with Cloud9 leading 1-0, which materially reduces the relevance of pre-match probability and shifts attention to completion risk, forfeits, or any broadcast or technical disruption that could affect the final official result.[1][7][14] Because the market resolves on the official winner rather than in-game momentum, the decisive factors are administrative status, not kill score or map control.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Cloud9 vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.