Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) | 49% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Game 4 Winner | 8% |
| Match Winner | 2% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: GAM (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Deep Cross Gaming and GAM Esports are scheduled to meet in Round 5 of the League of Legends Continental Pro League Group Stage on 13 August at 05:00 ET. The match is a best-of-five series, meaning the first team to secure three victories advances. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract at 100% YES for Deep Cross Gaming, reflecting near-certainty in the conditional token markets on Polygon. This extreme probability suggests traders holding YES positions see minimal downside risk, whilst those considering NO positions face substantial odds against their conviction.
The LCP Group Stage operates within a compressed schedule where teams play multiple rounds in succession. Historical precedent from League esports tournaments shows that matches scheduled at unconventional times—particularly early morning slots in Western time zones—rarely cancel outright, though delays occasionally occur. GAM Esports, representing the Vietnamese region, typically fields competitive rosters in regional play, yet the 100% pricing indicates market participants assess Deep Cross Gaming as decisively favoured. Comparable LCP matchups involving regional powerhouses have occasionally produced upsets, but the settlement window extends only to 15:00 UTC on 13 August, providing a narrow window for resolution before the 50-50 tie-break clause activates.
Traders should monitor official LCP communications for any schedule adjustments or venue changes in the days preceding the match. Roster announcements or last-minute substitutions, whilst uncommon in established regional leagues, could shift underlying expectations. The match's position as Round 5 suggests both teams have accumulated form data from earlier group play; any injury reports or coaching changes would surface through regional esports news outlets before the 05:00 ET start time.
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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