Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Match Winner | 63% |
| Game 1 Winner | 57% |
| Game 2 Winner | 57% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 41% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) | 34% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
Market context
Polymarket’s contract is pricing **Dplus KIA** at **59% YES** against **KT Rolster** today, with settlement running through the August 9 window and paying out via the usual USDC, Polygon conditional-token structure. For a trader, that means the market is not about scoreline style or map count: it resolves on the match winner in the BO3, and any no-contest outcome, tie, or excessive delay pushes it to 50-50 under the market rules.[7][12]
The current price sits close to the teams’ broader head-to-head profile rather than implying a strong edge either way. Recent comparison pages show Dplus KIA leading the all-time series 17-12, while KT have had their own stretches of better short-run form; the most recent listed meeting on 7 June 2026 ended KT Rolster 3-2 Dplus KIA, which matters because a fresh result like that often anchors expectation around a rematch more than older seasons do.[4][5] Polymarket’s own team page has also shown this fixture around the low-60s for Dplus KIA, so the live market is broadly in line with that prior pricing.[7]
The main catalysts are simple but important: final roster confirmation, any schedule change from LCK, and whether the match actually starts on time inside the settlement window. Because the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played or is delayed beyond seven days from the scheduled date without a winner, traders are effectively watching for official broadcast and league scheduling updates as much as the in-game matchup itself.[12] At the moment, match listings place Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster on 9 August 2026, which supports the idea that the contract is centred on a live scheduled fixture rather than an uncertain placeholder.[1][10]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 L… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →