LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing FlyQuest to beat Disguised at **100% YES**, which leaves almost no room for uncertainty in the USDC-settled conditional-token contract on Polygon. For a trader, that means the market is already treating the series as effectively decided, so the main risk is not competitive balance but event mechanics: whether the BO3 is actually played, completed, or affected by a delay, cancellation, or forfeit outcome under the market rules.

The historical read is one-sided. FlyQuest have won all three recorded head-to-head meetings against Disguised, including a 2-0 in the LCS Spring regular season on 12 April 2026, and a 2-1 in the Lock-In Swiss stage earlier in the year.[8][1][10] That track record explains why the market can sit pinned at the ceiling, but it also shows how little marginal information remains once a favourite has already dominated the matchup repeatedly. In a contract like this, the current price mostly reflects consensus on the result rather than any expectation of a close series.

The catalysts now are procedural rather than sporting: the official Riot schedule, any broadcast or league announcement about a revised start time, and whether the series is actually completed before the settlement window closes. Polymarket’s resolution logic matters here because an unplayed match, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days forces a 50-50 outcome, even if the teams are otherwise clearly mismatched. Traders also watch for roster or venue changes, since late substitutions, technical pauses, or forfeitures can alter how the contract settles compared with a normal on-stage finish.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.