Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 72% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 57% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 54% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 54% |
| Game 4 Winner | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Match Winner | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Game 1 Winner | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 49% |
| Game 3 Winner | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 42% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 36% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 34% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 34% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 24% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 24% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 14% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 14% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: g2 esports vs karmine corp (bo5) - lec playoffs stands at 73% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between G2 Esports and Karmine Corp in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
We track LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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