LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Solary side at **0% YES** on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, which means the market is effectively treating a Solary win as impossible at the moment. That is a very hard discount for a Bo1 in the LFL regular season, and it can only be justified if traders think the contract is already stale, mis-specified, or close to being superseded by the real-world result.

Historically, this pairing has not been one-sided enough to support a literal zero. Solary beat Vitality.Bee **1-0** in their April 2026 LFL meeting, while broader head-to-head records in the search results still show Vitality.Bee with the larger long-run edge across many past encounters.[2][5][8] That mix matters for prediction-market users: a 0% print is usually less about the teams’ true chance and more about whether the market has become illiquid, whether the match outcome has already been widely digested, or whether traders are anchoring to an older result rather than the live contract terms.

The main catalysts are basic but decisive: the match being officially played, any late schedule change, and confirmation that the BO1 reaches a normal winner before the 7-day fallback window closes.[2] If there is a forfeit, disqualification, cancellation, or a delay beyond that window, settlement can shift away from a clean Solary/Vitality.Bee outcome and towards the market’s 50-50 rule, so the key check is whether Riot/LFL and the organiser keep the fixture intact.[2] For a Polymarket user, the practical read is simple: the on-chain position only resolves from the match result or the explicit fallback mechanics, not from pre-match sentiment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.