Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 74% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 70% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 61% |
| Match Winner | 59% |
| Game 1 Winner | 56% |
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Game 3 Winner | 56% |
| Game 4 Winner | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 41% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 37% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 31% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) | 18% |
Market context
Market consensus: 75% chance of lol: t1 vs dplus kia (bo5) - lck playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between T1 and Dplus KIA in the LCK Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Trade LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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