Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 48% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 48% |
| Match Winner | 47% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 32% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing T1 at **86%** to beat DN SOOPers in this BO1, with the contract settling in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens tied to the official result. On the current book, that means the market is treating a T1 win as the clear base case rather than a coin-flip, but the single-game format leaves more room for variance than a series.
That price sits in line with recent head-to-head framing and preview coverage that has consistently leaned towards T1, including calls for a straight 2-0 in related match previews and past match reports that describe T1 as the stronger side in this pairing.[2][3][5] For Polymarket users, the relevant comparison is not just raw team strength but how often an early-game draft or one fight can swing a BO1, which keeps even heavily favoured contracts from trading at 95% or higher.
The main catalysts are straightforward: confirm the match actually starts on schedule, check the official KeSPA Cup bracket and stream listings, and watch for any last-minute roster or format notes that could affect whether the game is played to completion. Because this market resolves to **50-50** if the match is not played, ends tied, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, any scheduling disruption is more material than it would be in a standard sports result market.[1]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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