Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 4 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-2.5) vs la Masia (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-2.5) vs la Masia (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map 3 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 2GAME (-1.5) vs la Masia (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 2GAME (-2.5) vs la Masia (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-2.5) vs la Masia (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-2.5) vs la Masia (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-2.5) vs la Masia (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 2GAME Esports (-3.5) vs la Masia (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MAS (-1.5) vs 2GAME Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
The VCL Brazil Grand Final between 2GAME Esports and la Masia has already concluded on the blockchain, with the Polymarket contract pricing the outcome at a definitive 100% YES for 2GAME Esports. This on-chain certainty reflects the completed Best of 5 match held on July 12, where 2GAME secured the title, locking the settlement to their name before the July 13 deadline. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can now redeem their conditional tokens at full value, as the underlying event has passed and the result is immutable.
Historically, prediction markets for completed esports finals with a 100% probability rarely deviate, as the settlement window closes only after the official result is verified by tournament organisers. Unlike live markets where volatility spikes during play, this contract behaves like a settled bond; the 100% price indicates zero ambiguity regarding the winner, mirroring past VCL Brazil outcomes where the Grand Final winner was immediately reflected in market pricing. The absence of a tie or cancellation clause activation confirms the match was played and completed without disqualification.
Traders should monitor the official VLR.gg or Liquipedia match logs to confirm the final map score, though the market has already resolved based on the tournament’s official declaration. No further catalysts exist, as the settlement date of July 13 has arrived and the result is final. The only dependency is the automated execution of the smart contract on Polygon, which will distribute USDC to holders of the winning share without manual intervention.
Methodology
We track Valorant: 2GAME Esports vs la Masia (BO5) - VCL Brazil: Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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