Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 98% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-4.5) vs Sentinels (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-6.5) vs Sentinels (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-7.5) vs Sentinels (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-5.5) vs Sentinels (+5.5) | 75% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 56% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-9.5) vs Sentinels (+9.5) | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-10.5) vs Sentinels (+10.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 26% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-4.5) vs Sentinels (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-3.5) vs Team Envy (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-4.5) vs Team Envy (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-6.5) vs Sentinels (+6.5) | 9% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-5.5) vs Sentinels (+5.5) | 9% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing Team Envy vs Sentinels at 100% YES, which means the contract is effectively treated as settled unless the match is materially delayed or not played within the resolution window. The market is built on USDC and Polygon, with the outcome represented by conditional tokens that resolve to Team Envy, Sentinels, or a 50-50 split if the fixture is cancelled or ends tied.
The match sits inside VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-Ins, which run from 13 to 23 August in a 12-team double-elimination bracket, with all maps played as best-of-three. Envy have already progressed through the play-in bracket, and the latest published results show Sentinels and Envy meeting in the upper bracket round after earlier play-in wins, so the current price is best read as the market leaning on the event having already been played or being fully accounted for in the bracket flow. Comparable VCT Americas play-in markets have often moved sharply once a team is confirmed through the bracket and the schedule is locked, because there is little room left for uncertainty once results are posted.
A trader should watch for official bracket updates, stream listings, and any rescheduling notices from Riot or tournament broadcasters, because Polymarket resolution depends on whether the match is played by the deadline, not on headline tournament narratives. The contract description sets a hard cutoff on postponements, so any delay beyond the settlement window would force a different outcome than a completed BO3. The key practical trigger is whether the scheduled upper-bracket fixture proceeds on time, since VCT Americas play-ins are still active and last-minute schedule changes remain the main source of resolution risk.
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT America… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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