Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: RC (-1.5) vs IGZIST (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: REJECT (-3.5) vs IGZIST (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: REJECT (-3.5) vs IGZIST (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: REJECT (-3.5) vs IGZIST (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
REJECT and IGZIST will contest the first semifinal of the VCL Japan Season Finals in a best-of-three Valorant match scheduled for 24 July at 11:00PM ET. The conditional tokens on Polymarket currently price this at 100% implied probability for REJECT, reflecting either overwhelming confidence in their victory or minimal liquidity depth in the order book. Settlement occurs on 25 July at 09:30 UTC, allowing roughly 10 hours post-match for result confirmation and token redemption on Polygon.
VCL Japan's competitive landscape has historically favoured established rosters with consistent LAN experience. REJECT has maintained higher visibility in regional tournaments throughout 2024, whilst IGZIST's path to the finals represents a notable upset narrative. Previous VCL Japan semifinals have rarely produced outcomes contradicting pre-tournament seeding, though upsets do occur when teams field substitutes or encounter tactical preparation gaps. The 100% pricing suggests traders view this as a heavily weighted matchup rather than a genuine toss-up.
Traders should monitor official VCL Japan announcements for roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions, which could alter competitive balance substantially. Schedule adherence matters critically here—any delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome. Technical issues during broadcast or match forfeiture would similarly resolve the market to even odds. The tight settlement window of approximately 10 hours post-match means rapid result confirmation is essential for timely USDC redemption on Polygon.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: REJECT vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Season … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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