Ethereum price on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum's noon ET price on 19 August 2026 will be determined by the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% probability, reflecting either extreme certainty about the price falling outside all listed brackets or minimal liquidity in this particular contract. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded data; traders settling positions will need USDC on Polygon to claim conditional tokens against the actual spot price recorded.

Historical precedent suggests that Ethereum's intraday volatility at any given noon timestamp has rarely been predictable beyond broad directional bias. Over the past three years, daily price ranges for ETH have averaged 3–5% during standard market hours, with noon ET typically falling within normal trading volumes rather than during major Asian or US market opens. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either a technical issue with market creation or genuine uncertainty about which price bracket will ultimately settle—a common pattern when contracts specify precise timestamps rather than daily closes.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for scheduled Ethereum network upgrades, Federal Reserve announcements affecting risk appetite, and major institutional flows during summer 2026. Regulatory clarity on spot ETH ETFs or changes to staking mechanics could shift volatility expectations. The specific noon ET timestamp means that Asian market momentum and European morning trading will have already concluded, potentially reducing the influence of overnight moves on final settlement price.

Methodology

We track Ethereum price on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.