Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **11% YES** in USDC on Polygon, which implies traders think an Israeli acceptance of the Board of Peace Gaza roadmap by 7 August is still a low-probability outcome. On the market’s own mechanics, the conditional token resolves to YES only if Israel publicly accepts the roadmap, so late-breaking language from Jerusalem matters more than broad signs of negotiation.

The current price sits against a sceptical historical read: on 31 July, Israeli officials rejected the newly unveiled Gaza plan, saying it did not adequately address Hamas disarmament and that there would be no withdrawal until Gaza was demilitarised[1]. That rejection followed reports that the framework required both Hamas disarmament and an Israeli pull-back, which made the deal structurally dependent on reciprocal concessions rather than a unilateral Israeli move[2]. Comparable ceasefire-and-withdrawal efforts in Gaza have repeatedly stalled over sequencing, verification, and whether security steps come before territorial concessions, which is exactly the kind of deadlock that usually keeps these markets anchored below a coin-flip level.

For traders, the main catalysts are any new statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, a cabinet vote, or a follow-up White House/mediator announcement that recasts the July 30 roadmap as a revised successor text. Reporting over the past few days has pointed to phased implementation, with detailed steps expected within roughly two weeks and movement between phases dependent on verified completion[4][8]. Fresh Israeli strikes on Gaza on 3 August were reported to cast doubt on revival efforts, and Bloomberg noted that Israel had not accepted the fresh agreement as of that date[6]. In a market with a hard settlement deadline, the key watchpoint is not whether talks continue, but whether Israel explicitly signs on to the roadmap language before 11:59 PM ET on 7 August.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.